The polyurethane industry originated in Germany and has developed rapidly in Europe, America and Japan for more than 50 years, and has become the fastest growing industry in the chemical industry. In the 1970s, the global polyurethane products totaled 1.1 million tons, reached 10 million tons in 2000, and the total output in 2005 was about 13.7 million tons. The average annual growth rate of global polyurethane from 2000 to 2005 was about 6.7%. The North American, Asia Pacific and European markets accounted for 95% of the global polyurethane market in 2010. Asia Pacific, Eastern Europe and South America markets are expected to grow rapidly over the next decade.
According to the research report of Researchand Markets, the global polyurethane market demand was 13.65 million tons in 2010, and it is expected to reach 17.946 million tons in 2016, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.7%. In value terms, it was estimated at $33.033 billion in 2010 and will reach $55.48 billion in 2016, a CAGR of 6.8%. However, due to the excess production capacity of MDI and TDI, the key raw materials of polyurethane in China, the increasing demand for polyurethane downstream products, and the transfer of business focus and R&D centers by many multinational companies to the Asian and even Chinese markets, the domestic polyurethane industry will usher in a golden period in the future.
The market concentration of each sub-industry of polyurethane in the world is extremely high
Polyurethane raw materials, especially isocyanates, have high technical barriers, so the market share of the world polyurethane industry is mainly occupied by several major chemical giants, and the industry concentration is very high.
The global CR5 of MDI is 83.5%, TDI is 71.9%, BDO is 48.6% (CR3), polyether polyol is 57.6%, and spandex is 58.2%.
The global production capacity and demand for polyurethane raw materials and products are expanding rapidly
(1) The production capacity of polyurethane raw materials expanded rapidly. In terms of MDI and TDI, the global MDI production capacity reached 5.84 million tons in 2011, and the TDI production capacity reached 2.38 million tons. In 2010, the global MDI demand reached 4.55 million tons, and the Chinese market accounted for 27%. It is estimated that by 2015, the global MDI market demand is expected to increase by about 40% to 6.4 million tons, and China’s global market share will increase to 31% during the same period.
At present, there are more than 30 TDI enterprises and more than 40 sets of TDI production plants in the world, with a total production capacity of 2.38 million tons. In 2010, the production capacity was 2.13 million tons. About 570,000 tons. In the next few years, the global TDI market demand will grow at a rate of 4%-5%, and it is estimated that the global TDI market demand will reach 2.3 million tons by 2015. By 2015, the annual demand of China’s TDI market will reach 828,000 tons, accounting for 36% of the global total.
In terms of polyether polyols, the current global production capacity of polyether polyols exceeds 9 million tons, while the consumption is between 5 million and 6 million tons, with obvious excess capacity. The international polyether production capacity is mainly concentrated in the hands of several major companies such as Bayer, BASF, and Dow, and the CR5 is as high as 57.6%.
(2)Midstream polyurethane products. According to the report of IAL Consulting Company, the average annual growth rate of global polyurethane production from 2005 to 2007 was 7.6%, reaching 15.92 million tons. With the expansion of production capacity and increasing demand, it is expected to reach 18.7 million tons in 12 years.
The average annual growth rate of the polyurethane industry is 15%
China’s polyurethane industry originated in the 1960s and developed very slowly at first. In 1982, the domestic output of polyurethane was only 7,000 tons. After the reform and opening up, with the rapid development of the national economy, the development of the polyurethane industry has also advanced by leaps and bounds. In 2005, my country’s consumption of polyurethane products (including solvents) reached 3 million tons, about 6 million tons in 2010, and the average annual growth rate from 2005 to 2010 was about 15%, much higher than the GDP growth rate.
Polyurethane rigid foam demand is expected to explode
Polyurethane rigid foam is mainly used in refrigeration, building insulation, automobile and other industries. In recent years, due to a large number of applications in building insulation and cold chain logistics, the demand for polyurethane rigid foam has grown rapidly, with an average annual consumption growth rate of 16% from 2005 to 2010. In the future, with the continuous expansion of the building insulation and energy saving market, the demand for polyurethane rigid foam is expected to usher in explosive growth. It is expected that in the next five years, polyurethane rigid foam will still grow at a rate of more than 15%.
Domestic soft polyurethane foam is mainly used in the field of furniture and car seat cushions. In 2010, the domestic consumption of polyurethane soft foam reached 1.27 million tons, and the average annual consumption growth rate from 2005 to 2010 was 16%. It is expected that the growth rate of my country’s soft foam demand in the next few years will be 10% or so.
Synthetic leather slurry sole solution ranks first
Polyurethane elastomers are widely used in steel, paper, printing and other industries. There are several 10,000-ton manufacturers and about 200 small and medium-sized manufacturers.
Polyurethane synthetic leather is widely used in luggage, clothing, shoes, etc. In 2009, Chinese polyurethane slurry consumption was about 1.32 million tons. my country is not only a producer and consumer of polyurethane synthetic leather, but also an important exporter of polyurethane synthetic leather products. In 2009, the consumption of polyurethane sole solution in my country was about 334,000 tons.
The average annual growth rate of polyurethane coatings and adhesives is more than 10%
Polyurethane coatings are widely used in high-grade wood paints, architectural coatings, heavy anti-corrosion coatings, high-grade automotive paints, etc.; polyurethane adhesives are widely used in shoemaking, composite films, construction, automobiles and even aerospace special bonding and sealing. There are more than a dozen 10,000-ton manufacturers of polyurethane coatings and adhesives. In 2010, the output of polyurethane coatings was 950,000 tons, and the output of polyurethane adhesives was 320,000 tons.
Since 2001, the average annual growth rate of my country’s adhesive production and sales revenue has been over 10%. Average annual growth rate. Benefiting from the rapid development of the adhesive industry, the composite polyurethane adhesive has an average annual sales growth rate of 20% in the past ten years, which is one of the fastest growing adhesive products. Among them, plastic flexible packaging is the main application field of composite polyurethane adhesives, accounting for more than 50% of the total production and sales of composite polyurethane adhesives. According to the forecast of China Adhesives Industry Association, the output of composite polyurethane adhesives for plastic flexible packaging will be more than 340,000 tons.
In the future, China will become the development center of the global polyurethane industry
Benefiting from my country’s rich resources and broad market, my country’s production and sales of polyurethane products continue to increase. In 2009, my country’s consumption of polyurethane products reached 5 million tons, accounting for about 30% of the global market. In the future, the proportion of my country’s polyurethane products in the world will increase. It is expected that in 2012, my country’s polyurethane production will account for more than 35% of the world’s share, becoming the largest producer of polyurethane products.
Investment Strategy
The market thinks the polyurethane industry as a whole is sluggish, and is not optimistic about the polyurethane industry. We believe that the polyurethane industry is currently in the bottom operating area. Because the industry has strong scale expansion capabilities, there will be recovery growth in 2012, especially in the future, China will become the global polyurethane industry development. The center is an indispensable emerging material for polyurethane economic development and people’s lives. The average annual growth rate of China’s polyurethane industry is 15%.
Post time: Jul-07-2022